最近思考

做完看了猎豹创始人对于年轻人的一些建议,我认为其中最重要的是有目标感。有目标之后就可以建立一套准则,从而根据准则从长远角度做出决策,知道短期牺牲的是什么,而不是根据短期利益或是直觉决定。

另外我认为让自己快乐和富有的方法一定是创造。每天对着B站和知乎看三四个小时,只是被动接收不去创造的空虚感是极其可怕的。机械地寻求刺激会吞噬人创造的欲望,将人带入懒惰的深渊。实际上一些爱好本质上也是创造,比如摄影和写作。从工作和学习的角度来讲,如果学习的目的不是产出,那么学习本身也是没有意义的,或者说是奢侈的,就像近代大学创立前,宫廷贵族单纯为了满足学习的欲望而学习一样。

今天在知乎上看到训练逻辑思维的方法,归根结底是思考-写作。希望最近能保持。

努力成功和自信是一个良性循环。

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20180412预测市场爆发

根据上次清明节前分析,假期并没有贸易战坏消息发生,反而是美国的矛头转向了俄罗斯/叙利亚,且中国承诺进一步开放,尤其是金融领域,让人不禁认为Trump单纯是为了在国内造成施压中国导致中国屈服的表象,为中期选举造势。

油价继续飙涨,我认为是特朗普增加国内通胀的手段,或许也是唯一手段。之后有时间可以研究下通胀,汇率的问题。

鉴于我对市场的直觉,包括1.中国近期对场外期权的限制(说明衍生品/投机市场近期急速膨胀),2.中国承诺金融开放(市场乐观情绪增加),3.市场刚刚经历调整,4.开户数量增加,5.券商盈利增加,中港股市很可能迎来一轮新的狂欢

关于近期市场的观点总结2017-12-04

很久之后第一次动笔写文章,希望能长久坚持下去。这次主要讲最近推荐母上的股票和对腾讯的看法)

10月中推荐给母上几只股票,都不包含科技股,全部是高息的电力(华润电力),银行(农行,HSBC),消费(达利食品),还有中港两地指数基金,配上黄金ETF,当时美其名曰“低风险”,虽然跑了个Markowitz,但是并没怎么看Beta。之后发现高息股的Beta的确小一些(之后研究一下高息股的Beta),最后Portfolio一共40多万港币,希望能持有至少超过1年。这么配置的原因是我对近期香港股市甚至全球股市的谨慎情绪。我认为11月开始,香港市场正在从合理走向过热,包括从长期增长率(土八路思路:从2014年初22000-23000每年6-7%增长,到2017年底对应合理价值应该为27774至30148点,一旦超过可以认为估值过高。注:关于这个话题,包括是否能形成一个低频策略还有待观察,最好学习一下回测方法自己试验,比如在Quantopian上)而近期腾讯和茅台的大幅调整则是估值缺乏支撑的证明。无脑买入看似高增长高盈利的股票在不断推高估值,消耗未来的回报空间。虽然从长期来看这些公司可能会战胜周期成为伟大的公司,但是忍受10年的亏损的确很催人泪下。

(关于腾讯

母上想在350买腾讯但是我一直劝阻。腾讯手游面临的压力是十分巨大的,目前来讲我认为腾讯过去一两年的增长引擎——手游业务的运营并不十分高效,可以从王者荣耀的迭代和其他游戏的推出速度看出,相比竞争对手网易游戏的确有很大差距。比如即将推出的吃鸡手游,腾讯一个公司让两个团队竞争,虽说内部竞争能分散风险和保证质量,但也证明科技(游戏)公司现在在以比较粗犷的方式管理成本,一旦增长降低之后会风险很大,之后一旦出现任何控制成本的信号或许会令市场产生恐慌(或许对游戏、互联网公司近期的margin应该研究下,看看研报?)。

另外在Random Walk Down Wall Street上看到漂亮50年代通过收购增加EPS的案例真是感觉惊艳,而同样的事情似乎也发生在花大价钱收购游戏公司的腾讯身上。归根结底还是腾讯能维持高估值的根基——高速增长多久。以60倍的PE计算(究竟应该用什么PE也是问题,不同来源分数据非常不同),之前看研报腾讯去年盈利增长大概60%,PEG为1。如果一年后的过去12月增长率下降到40%,PEG保持不变,则估值下降到原来的1.4*(40/60)=93.3%。这个粗略计算的break-even point大概需要腾讯明年维持43%的增长速度才能保证股价不会下跌。当然PEG不一定维持,市场对增长的偏好减少获增加,让增速对股价的影响是很uncertain的,或许会出现增速下滑但是投资者信心很足的情况,所以之后不要增速一下滑就立刻做空。不论如何,现在购买腾讯都不算一个很好的Bet,不是说腾讯以后几年不会维持高增长,但增速降低这个过程迟早会发生,因为长期增长率必定无法超出经济增长率或者人口增长率,而一旦降速超过预期对股价的伤害会非常巨大。从另外一个角度讲,到底全人类每天有多少时间打游戏呢?又有多少可支配利润能分配到游戏上呢?最后难道政府不会介入吗?

至于配置高息股的原因,鉴于我个人对加息一直抱有悲观情绪(加息对资产价格和经济的摧毁过于巨大),直觉上我认为加息速度应该低于预期,而悲观情绪又和配置黄金有矛盾。不过今天通过的减税,对通胀的刺激应该比较强烈,也为长期持有黄金奠定了一定基础。

整体而言,我总希望在历史中找到可以借鉴的经验来预测市场走向。虽然现在和70年代初的漂亮50和里根的供给侧改革(减税)相似,但是是否能直接类比也难以说清,比较大的区别是现在利率处在历史低点而80年代初利率处在绝对高点。在改革后美国经历了短期的萧条(1980-1983),但是之后却开启了波澜壮阔的牛市。这段历史我还要再多读读吧,有些事情可能真的一辈子都看不懂,也永远不可能预测未来。

Personal Development, Investment, and Fund Industry – Notes from a meeting with Mr.Lai, the deputy CEO of Value Partners

On December 7, 2017, I was very fortunate to get a chance to talk face-to-face with Mr.Lai Voon San, a fund veteran who has a decades of experience in equity research and fund management, in the headquarter of Value Partners Group, the largest individual fund manager in Hong Kong with an AUM of US$14 billion. Here is a brief note for our discussion. The discussion inspired me a lot.

Job Interview Tips: Show the Real Passion

Show the real passion. Don’t just say “I love finance because finance is interesting and can make a lot of money”. Add details and show you have done extra efforts or know more than average. A recruiter will easily tell if you are passionate or not, and they can lose interest in you quickly if you throw lame answers all the way.

Teamwork Culure in VP:

Students in Hong Kong tend to compete rather than cooperate in schools because they are required to do the same tasks and see who can do better than others. It’s different in the work place because the different functions each position carries, and people need to learn how to rely on and share with others. It’s every interesting that each VP employee need to sign a promise to comply with the sharing values of VP, and that piece of agreement will be placed in a frame.

Big Data/Fintech in Equity Research:

The Fintech is a big topic and can applied to varied fields of fund industries. Regarding big data and research, VP do buy big data from data providers, not those like Bloomberg, but those like UnionPay, which can provide day-to-day credit card  transaction data and reveal sales of luxury watch or latest iPhone. He do expect young people to learn coding, not only as a skill, but also a way to think and solve problems.

Talking about whether machine will replace human to be next generation of asset managers, he mentioned that a lot of talents are working very hard to build such programs in China and US, and will earn a lot once they succeed. However, one thing Mr.Lai loves investment specifically is the different ways people interpret the same data. In my opinion, that variance applies to both ages when we depend on financial statements and big data. And that’s why machines and algorithm can’t replace true talents, at least in the short term.

Value Investing in Mainland China?:

Is it harder to value invest in China? Mr. Lai’s answer was Yes and No. Value investing requires true financial data, and we have to admit some mainland China companies should improve on transparency. However, since it’s harder for everyone to get the truth, research becomes more valuable, and those who can reach the truth will be the winners and gain advantages. In my word: heroes emerge in troubled times.

Renminbi Internationalization and Capital Account Opening: Can AM industry in Hong Kong Benefits?

The renminbi internationalization and other reforms are going in a very slow pace, and Mr.Lai thinks it’s a good pace because a sudden opening up will create troubles and chaos. The effects ae very complicated. No one really know how long will it take before the fully opening up.

He do admit investors in both mainland China and overseas may bypass Hong Kong if a full opening up is done. While he believes the reputation and track record will still make VP standing out in that stage. You don’t put money in a bank set up yesterday. It’s possible for old brands to be acquired by the new money, though.

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That’s all I can remember. Sorry or the rough writing style. I still have exams to prepare. Wish my notes can help.

James

Game Video Streaming Platforms go viral even though the profit is out of step with expenses

Reported by James Wang

Edited by Adelaide Hui

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Tencent (HK: 700), China’s entertainment and media conglomerate serving both on-line and off-line customers, is eyeing a wave of Game Video Streaming Platforms (GVSP), which is turning a new leaf in its online gaming business.

GVSPs provide play through of on-line games as well as covering e-sport competitions. Leading platforms include Douyu in mainland China, while the Amazon.com’s Twitch.tv is popular in Hong Kong. These platforms cover heat online games like League of Legends (“Lol”), the major product of the U.S. based Riot Games, which is now a subsidiary of Tencent. Continue reading “Game Video Streaming Platforms go viral even though the profit is out of step with expenses”

國企改革:落地時刻=夢碎時刻?

國企改革:落地時刻=夢碎時刻?

2015-9-27

2015年9月13日星期日晚間,國企改革頂層方案終於公佈,卻並沒能給市場帶來新的活力。在之前最后一个交易日末尾,A股已經提前下跌;9月14日開盤后,A股跌勢不減,當日收跌2.67%。市場的冷淡但應讓人不禁疑問,國企改革,除了憧憬還能帶來什麼? Continue reading “國企改革:落地時刻=夢碎時刻?”

Peer-to-Peer Lending – New Crowdfunding Model In China

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Reported by James Wang

Qing Song Chou (literally “easy raising”) is a crowdfunding platform first launched in Wechat, the dominant messaging and social network app in China, helping users to finance their projects ranging from art shows, fancy homemade products, to whatever they would like to initiate. Being different from its US model – Kickstarter, Qing Song Chou targets at acquaintances of the fundraiser. Continue reading “Peer-to-Peer Lending – New Crowdfunding Model In China”